tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:10, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1409 Delta Flight history → SLC 17:30 RDU 23:37 16% 5% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 8h 01m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:20 → IAD 15:31UA 2264 1h 59m Dulles IAD 17:30 → RDU 18:55UA 3624 · flown by Republic 7h 35m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 06m Houston IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55UA 2196 7h 10m 95% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:55 → MDW 10:55WN 3749 2h 25m Chicago MDW 13:20 → RDU 16:15WN 4462 7h 20m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097 8h 44m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:42 +1DL 2938 9h 07m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → SLC 06:07 → ORD 10:30AA 1327 4h 00m Chicago ORD 14:30 → RDU 17:46AA 3696 · flown by Envoy 9h 39m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750 50m Chicago MDW 18:55 → RDU 21:50WN 4221 5h 45m 65% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 16:50 → DEN 18:20WN 3740 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:20 → RDU 00:45 +1WN 1692 5h 55m 66% 39%
AmericanDetails → SLC 14:04 → MIA 21:00AA 483 47m Miami MIA 21:47 → RDU 23:59AA 1286 7h 55m 43% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON