Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3018 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 3018 SLC 07:40 → SAN 08:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3754 SLC 12:55 → SAN 13:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3018 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:40	SAN 08:50	11%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	SAN 08:41	11%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	SAN 12:08	17%	6%	0.6%	84%
AS 3123 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 14:39	SAN 15:46	19%	6%	0.6%	83%
AS 3019 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 18:06	SAN 19:16	21%	6%	0.6%	80%
DL 1202 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:55	SAN 23:49	23%	6%	0.7%	83%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SAN 15:56	24%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	SAN 18:06	25%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 3754 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 12:55	SAN 13:50	33%	8%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON