Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 1444 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–41%.

Safest bet that day AS 1444 SLC 06:23 → SEA 07:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 665 SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1444 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 06:23	SEA 07:35	9%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 2874 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SEA 09:02	12%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2995 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	SEA 12:49	16%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 796 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 11:17	SEA 12:30	21%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 2998 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	SEA 00:01	21%	5%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
DL 2921 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:20	SEA 14:35	21%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 664 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 12:51	SEA 14:04	25%	5%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
AS 3381 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:10	SEA 10:35	25%	5%	0.5%	56%
DL 2817 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:15	SEA 16:28	27%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 871 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:20	SEA 18:33	29%	5%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
DL 2016 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:44	SEA 22:00	30%	6%	0.7%	46%
AS 734 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 16:00	SEA 17:16	32%	7%	0.8%	67%
AS 665 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 18:44	SEA 20:00	41%	8%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON