Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 4763 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 4763 SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2762 SLC 20:59 → SFO 21:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4763 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 06:05	SFO 07:19	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1955 United Flight history →	SLC 16:15	SFO 17:17	21%	11%	0.6%	58%
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SFO 08:51	22%	5%	0.6%	67%
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:00	SFO 12:03	27%	10%	0.6%	66%
F9 3393 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 17:02	SFO 18:23	27%	17%	1.4%	69%
DL 1091 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	SFO 23:52	27%	8%	0.7%	66%
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SFO 16:12	27%	11%	0.7%	66%
UA 5970 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:49	SFO 11:13	35%	19%	0.6%	36%
UA 2097 United Flight history →	SLC 20:08	SFO 21:10	38%	11%	0.6%	12%
DL 2762 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:59	SFO 21:59	38%	9%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON