Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 4026 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 4026 SLC 07:55 → SJC 08:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 286 SLC 13:40 → SJC 14:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4026 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:55	SJC 08:57	5%	2%	0.5%	98%
DL 3937 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:25	SJC 18:26	9%	4%	0.5%	77%
DL 1254 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:40	SJC 12:35	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SJC 16:04	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 1272 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	SJC 23:39	17%	5%	0.6%	83%
WN 286 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 13:40	SJC 14:35	22%	5%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON