tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2077 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:50 TPA 06:01 12% 5% 4.5% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 7h 59m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 7h 32m 98% 69%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 05:35 → DEN 07:00WN 3737 3h 05m Denver DEN 10:05 → TPA 15:45WN 3560 8h 10m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 3h 08m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 11h 21m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 8h 45m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → TPA 15:27DL 1167 6h 27m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:51UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Denver DEN 17:50 → TPA 23:29UA 1961 8h 24m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:20 → IAD 15:31UA 2264 2h 29m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 9h 19m 98% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665 1h 18m Seattle SEA 21:18 → TPA 05:48 +1AS 639 9h 04m 70% 48%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 46m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425 6h 04m 71% 45%
AmericanDetails → SLC 14:04 → MIA 21:00AA 483 1h 09m Miami MIA 22:09 → TPA 23:15AA 3188 7h 11m 66% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON