Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3825 at 17:10, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3825 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:10	TUL 20:40	12%	4%	0.5%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Denver	DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	SLC 05:35 → DEN 07:00WN 3737	3h 20m Denver	DEN 10:20 → TUL 13:05WN 1762	6h 30m	100%	86%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:06 → TUL 12:18AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 18m	99%	86%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186	7h 53m	99%	81%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	3h 38m Houston	IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 30m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	8h 54m	100%	80%
United Details →	SLC 10:39 → DEN 12:24UA 2004	3h 11m Denver	DEN 15:35 → TUL 18:24UA 5280 · flown by SkyWest	6h 45m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON