tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 17:20, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 17:20 XNA 21:03 12% 5% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57AA 3847 · flown by Envoy 7h 57m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Denver DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa 8h 30m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 14:34 → XNA 16:27DL 4012 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:00 → DFW 10:44AA 2604 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 7h 27m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:49 → XNA 23:50DL 4441 · flown by SkyWest 9h 15m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SLC 06:07 → ORD 10:30AA 1327 1h 15m Chicago ORD 11:45 → XNA 13:41AA 3848 · flown by Envoy 6h 34m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771 8h 55m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 17:57 → DEN 19:40UA 1910 57m Denver DEN 20:37 → XNA 23:44UA 5269 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 71% 59%
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:18 → ORD 20:40UA 2072 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 67% 54%
AmericanDetails → SLC 16:42 → DFW 20:30AA 2594 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → XNA 22:37AA 3059 4h 55m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON