Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 741 SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 904 SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 741 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:30	ATL 14:09	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 878 Delta Flight history →	SMF 22:00	ATL 05:31	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 904 Delta Flight history →	SMF 12:21	ATL 20:05	9%	3%	0.7%	91%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 37m	93%	78%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 40m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773	1h 30m Denver	DEN 10:45 → ATL 15:35WN 2258	6h 40m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON