tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3758 Southwest Flight history → SMF 05:30 AUS 10:50 5% 1% 0.5% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 08:40 → AUS 13:25WN 2830 5h 10m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05WN 3815 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744 5h 35m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 6h 07m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50WN 3784 50m Las Vegas LAS 07:40 → AUS 12:25WN 1864 5h 00m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 1h 56m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → AUS 14:39UA 1326 6h 39m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → AUS 05:46 +1UA 1807 8h 43m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SMF 11:00 → SEA 12:55WN 1739 55m Seattle SEA 13:50 → AUS 20:05WN 4956 7h 05m 71% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 17:55 → LAS 19:25WN 4116 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 20:25 → AUS 01:10 +1WN 2186 5h 15m 61% 40%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:00 → SAN 19:30WN 1169 1h 00m San Diego SAN 20:30 → AUS 01:30 +1WN 3477 5h 30m 55% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON