tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Kansas City, leaving 11:50, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3759 Southwest Flight history → SMF 23:05 BNA 05:10 16% 5% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 28m Denver DEN 09:50 → BNA 13:33UA 1048 6h 33m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214 6h 16m 97% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:20 → LGB 07:50WN 3794 2h 40m Long Beach LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165 8h 10m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:00 → SAN 19:30WN 1169 3h 10m San Diego SAN 22:40 → BNA 04:45 +1WN 3480 8h 45m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 6h 37m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → SMF 19:21 → LAX 21:01AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 23:59 → BNA 06:08 +1AA 2149 8h 47m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 2h 23m San Francisco SFO 09:17 → BNA 15:53UA 499 7h 53m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 8h 54m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SMF 20:45 → LAS 22:15WN 3788 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 23:25 → BNA 05:00 +1WN 2191 6h 15m 66% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 16:00 → DEN 19:20WN 1001 50m Denver DEN 20:10 → BNA 23:45WN 4429 5h 45m 68% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 15:15 → SAN 16:45WN 4774 50m San Diego SAN 17:35 → BNA 23:35WN 3479 6h 20m 44% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON