tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3622 Southwest Flight history → SMF 21:40 BWI 05:35 18% 4% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Los Angeles LAX 23:05 → BWI 07:14 +1UA 1605 9h 27m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 2h 39m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 8h 57m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 00m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 15m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 15m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079 10h 00m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 17:30 → ONT 18:55WN 480 2h 45m Ontario ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143 9h 00m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 3h 20m Chicago MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020 9h 10m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:13 → SEA 08:16AS 1409 47m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 7h 51m 65% 53%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 7h 11m 55% 46%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 19:50 → LAS 21:20WN 1324 50m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 1069 6h 55m 51% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON