tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2464 American Flight history → SMF 22:03 CLT 06:08 14% 3% 0.8% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 1h 50m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343 7h 45m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 28m Denver DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633 7h 12m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 37m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 9h 34m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 22m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 11m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → CLT 17:30AA 1678 8h 30m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:19 → MSP 18:48DL 1701 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 7h 25m 94% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON