Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4274 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4274 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:05	DAL 10:20	4%	1%	0.5%	83%
WN 3772 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 17:25	DAL 22:50	28%	8%	0.5%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50WN 3784	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	5h 15m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05WN 3815	55m Phoenix	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	5h 15m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	SMF 06:20 → LGB 07:50WN 3794	1h 40m Long Beach	LGB 09:30 → DAL 14:30WN 264	6h 10m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 20m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773	2h 25m Denver	DEN 11:40 → DAL 14:45WN 2354	6h 50m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218	7h 25m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	SMF 09:00 → BUR 10:15WN 3764	1h 30m Burbank	BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921	5h 50m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:30 → AUS 10:50WN 3758	1h 20m Austin	AUS 12:10 → DAL 13:15WN 910	5h 45m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 12:40 → SAN 14:10WN 2537	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 15:15 → DAL 20:25WN 3582	5h 45m	71%	48%
Southwest Details →	SMF 13:40 → DEN 17:00WN 4105	50m Denver	DEN 17:50 → DAL 21:05WN 1521	5h 25m	67%	44%
Southwest Details →	SMF 12:20 → LAS 13:50WN 4278	50m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → DAL 19:25WN 4489	5h 05m	48%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON