Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3773 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3773 SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 1001 SMF 16:00 → DEN 19:20 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3773 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:55	DEN 09:15	3%	1%	0.5%	100%
UA 1889 United Flight history →	SMF 05:00	DEN 08:22	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2285 United Flight history →	SMF 08:50	DEN 12:16	7%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 1023 United Flight history →	SMF 10:50	DEN 14:17	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 3774 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:15	DEN 13:35	9%	3%	0.4%	96%
UA 1961 United Flight history →	SMF 13:00	DEN 16:26	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 1841 United Flight history →	SMF 18:37	DEN 21:59	14%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 566 United Flight history →	SMF 16:19	DEN 19:45	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
F9 3666 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 11:25	DEN 15:00	18%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 3775 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:00	DEN 15:20	19%	4%	0.4%	76%
WN 4105 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 13:40	DEN 17:00	23%	5%	0.5%	54%
WN 670 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 17:40	DEN 21:00	26%	6%	0.5%	77%
WN 2993 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 15:00	DEN 18:20	26%	6%	0.5%	63%
WN 1001 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:00	DEN 19:20	27%	6%	0.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON