tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:19, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2132 United Flight history → SMF 22:54 EWR 07:06 22% 5% 1.1% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:37 → DEN 21:59UA 1841 2h 00m Denver DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745 8h 03m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 40m Denver DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423 8h 00m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 2h 45m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 10h 15m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 1h 21m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 7h 53m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 23:15 → EWR 07:30 +1UA 2303 9h 43m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 38m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 10h 00m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 8h 19m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766 57m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 36m 69% 55%
UnitedDetails → SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 7h 48m 72% 55%
UnitedDetails → SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest 52m San Francisco SFO 13:45 → EWR 22:26UA 366 7h 40m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON