tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 302 Southwest Flight history → SMF 11:00 GEG 12:50 13% 2% 0.4% 81%
WN 2805 Southwest Flight history → SMF 21:50 GEG 23:40 21% 6% 0.5% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:13 → SEA 08:16AS 1409 1h 39m Seattle SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon 4h 47m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295 7h 37m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:46 → PDX 13:18AS 621 1h 12m Portland PDX 14:30 → GEG 15:41AS 3262 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 42m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 1h 40m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → GEG 11:40WN 2306 5h 25m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 23m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:46 → GEG 15:11UA 324 6h 21m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → GEG 10:27UA 6014 · flown by SkyWest 4h 27m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 12:57 → SEA 14:56AS 1476 55m Seattle SEA 15:51 → GEG 16:59AS 3305 · flown by SkyWest 4h 02m 58% 46%
DeltaDetails → SMF 19:41 → SEA 21:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 48m Seattle SEA 22:45 → GEG 23:55DL 2354 4h 14m 54% 38%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 19:50 → LAS 21:20WN 1324 50m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → GEG 00:35 +1WN 4268 4h 45m 51% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON