tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Lihue, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3781 Southwest Flight history → SMF 08:30 HNL 11:00 14% 3% 0.6% 86%
AS 819 Alaska Flight history → SMF 07:45 HNL 10:27 28% 5% 0.8% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SMF 10:00 → KOA 12:20WN 3783 3h 15m Kailua/Kona KOA 15:35 → HNL 16:30WN 2169 9h 30m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479 2h 55m Kahului OGG 14:15 → HNL 15:00WN 676 9h 00m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50WN 3784 1h 25m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 9h 10m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 2h 26m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 8h 43m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 49m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 09:15 → HNL 12:40WN 4109 9h 25m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05WN 3815 2h 25m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → HNL 12:55WN 3274 10h 45m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 13m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 7h 32m 67% 52%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:03 → SEA 10:09AS 795 46m Seattle SEA 10:55 → HNL 14:04AS 626 9h 01m 50% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON