Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3782 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 11:00	HOU 16:45	19%	4%	1.2%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50WN 3784	55m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → HOU 12:55WN 981	5h 30m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05WN 3815	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 08:05 → HOU 12:40WN 2833	5h 30m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773	1h 00m Denver	DEN 10:15 → HOU 13:55WN 1543	6h 00m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:05 → DAL 10:20WN 4274	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → HOU 12:45WN 19	5h 40m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	SMF 06:20 → LGB 07:50WN 3794	1h 00m Long Beach	LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483	5h 45m	95%	83%
Southwest Details →	SMF 06:00 → ONT 07:20WN 4911	2h 20m Ontario	ONT 09:40 → HOU 14:50WN 4868	6h 50m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728	3h 50m Chicago	MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124	10h 20m	100%	78%
American Details →	SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:00 → SAN 19:30WN 1169	1h 10m San Diego	SAN 20:40 → HOU 01:55 +1WN 4675	5h 55m	59%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON