tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1742 United Flight history → SMF 08:09 IAD 16:15 9% 2% 0.7% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → IAD 07:33 +1UA 2282 9h 46m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 58m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:37 → DEN 21:59UA 1841 2h 00m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 7h 50m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 2h 43m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 12m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 8h 15m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 9h 27m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → IAD 16:25UA 1849 7h 25m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 12:57 → SEA 14:56AS 1476 1h 05m Seattle SEA 16:01 → IAD 23:59AS 406 8h 02m 69% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON