tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2863 United Flight history → SMF 05:15 IAH 11:01 5% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 1949 United Flight history → SMF 13:15 IAH 19:10 13% 4% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:13 → LAX 12:05UA 5220 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Los Angeles LAX 15:20 → IAH 20:49UA 2377 8h 36m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498 7h 07m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502 6h 01m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:07 → IAH 13:40UA 1129 6h 40m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → IAH 06:04 +1UA 505 9h 01m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 10m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 24m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 44m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 10h 16m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON