Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 162 JetBlue Flight history →	SMF 23:08	JFK 07:30	36%	8%	0.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 17m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 45m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 15:10 → JFK 23:40DL 938	9h 23m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378	10h 18m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 19:20 → SLC 22:02DL 2585	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	7h 58m	92%	79%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689	8h 28m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → JFK 20:02DL 972	11h 02m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 18:55 → LAX 20:39DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 23:55 → JFK 08:16 +1DL 915	10h 21m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON