tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3783 Southwest Flight history → SMF 10:00 KOA 12:20 11% 2% 0.5% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 1h 50m Las Vegas LAS 09:30 → KOA 12:50WN 4452 9h 35m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 7h 40m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 53m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:00WN 3781 2h 15m Honolulu HNL 13:15 → KOA 14:10WN 561 8h 40m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479 2h 30m Kahului OGG 13:50 → KOA 14:30WN 3099 8h 30m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 11h 00m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 06m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 3h 07m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 9h 09m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 07:45 → HNL 10:27AS 819 1h 01m Honolulu HNL 11:28 → KOA 12:16AS 1078 7h 31m 73% 54%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 12:57 → SEA 14:56AS 1476 1h 03m Seattle SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238 9h 08m 69% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON