Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3784 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3784 SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1324 SMF 19:50 → LAS 21:20 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3784 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:25	LAS 06:50	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 2178 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:15	LAS 07:40	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 1241 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:05	LAS 08:30	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 1285 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:55	LAS 12:25	13%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 4278 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:20	LAS 13:50	24%	5%	0.7%	73%
WN 2755 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 15:30	LAS 17:00	31%	9%	0.7%	76%
F9 2070 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 18:28	LAS 20:00	34%	14%	1.5%	84%worse than usual
WN 3788 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:45	LAS 22:15	35%	11%	0.7%	65%
WN 2221 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:35	LAS 18:05	36%	11%	0.7%	35%
WN 3786 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:50	LAS 20:20	36%	12%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
WN 4116 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 17:55	LAS 19:25	39%	12%	0.8%	56%
WN 1324 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 19:50	LAS 21:20	39%	11%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON