Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3969 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 3969 SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3316 SMF 19:44 → LAX 21:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3969 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 06:00	LAX 07:40	7%	4%	0.5%	96%
UA 5220 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 10:13	LAX 12:05	9%	5%	0.5%	100%
WN 1840 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:05	LAX 08:35	10%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:17	LAX 12:56	10%	5%	0.5%	94%
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:15	LAX 15:52	11%	5%	0.5%	91%
UA 5628 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:47	LAX 20:39	11%	6%	0.5%	99%worse than usual
AA 6265 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:00	LAX 08:41	12%	4%	0.5%	90%
WN 1738 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:05	LAX 11:35	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:50	LAX 22:44	12%	5%	0.5%	90%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 09:21	LAX 10:58	13%	5%	0.5%	84%
AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 10:05	LAX 11:46	13%	5%	0.5%	85%
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:55	LAX 20:39	14%	6%	0.5%	89%
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 19:21	LAX 21:01	17%	6%	0.5%	84%
WN 4844 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:15	LAX 13:45	17%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 3792 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 14:55	LAX 16:25	25%	6%	0.5%	73%
WN 2394 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 17:15	LAX 18:45	31%	8%	0.5%	46%
WN 3793 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:45	LAX 22:15	33%	10%	0.5%	50%
F9 3316 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 19:44	LAX 21:20	35%	11%	1.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON