Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3794 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3794 SMF 06:20 → LGB 07:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 4934 SMF 19:35 → LGB 21:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3794 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:20	LGB 07:50	5%	3%	0.5%	80%
WN 3795 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 09:55	LGB 11:25	10%	5%	0.5%	83%
WN 2414 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 13:10	LGB 14:40	22%	7%	0.5%	96%worse than usual
WN 2485 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:15	LGB 17:40	26%	9%	0.5%	91%worse than usual
WN 4934 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 19:35	LGB 21:05	28%	10%	0.5%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON