tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 965 Alaska Flight history → SMF 07:00 LIH 09:33 14% 2% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 2h 11m San Francisco SFO 09:05 → LIH 11:50UA 1384 8h 50m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 1h 45m Las Vegas LAS 09:25 → LIH 12:45WN 2262 9h 30m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:00WN 3781 2h 25m Honolulu HNL 13:25 → LIH 14:15WN 1923 8h 45m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 24m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479 2h 35m Kahului OGG 13:55 → LIH 14:50WN 3101 8h 50m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 11h 36m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 12:57 → SEA 14:56AS 1476 3h 17m Seattle SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237 11h 28m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 07:45 → HNL 10:27AS 819 59m Honolulu HNL 11:26 → LIH 12:09AS 1063 7h 24m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON