tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3798 at 11:50, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3798 Southwest Flight history → SMF 11:50 MCI 17:00 19% 4% 0.5% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:39 → MCI 12:26UA 2159 5h 26m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 34m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 32m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 27m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 59m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 10:05 → MCI 14:55WN 786 6h 40m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05WN 3815 3h 25m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → MCI 15:00WN 3290 7h 50m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 3h 00m Chicago MDW 14:10 → MCI 15:35WN 4407 8h 20m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773 1h 55m Denver DEN 11:10 → MCI 13:45WN 1586 5h 50m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766 52m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 61% 47%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 13:40 → DEN 17:00WN 4105 55m Denver DEN 17:55 → MCI 20:45WN 4305 5h 05m 70% 47%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 16:35 → LAS 18:05WN 2221 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 19:10 → MCI 23:55WN 2266 5h 20m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON