tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3799 Southwest Flight history → SMF 22:10 MCO 06:15 16% 6% 8.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Los Angeles LAX 23:04 → MCO 07:03 +1UA 1730 9h 16m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → MCO 08:34 +1UA 1267 10h 31m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 10h 00m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 11h 20m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 48m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 99% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 17:08 → SEA 19:07AS 683 2h 26m Seattle SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394 10h 08m 97% 68%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 2h 30m Chicago MDW 13:40 → MCO 17:30WN 2819 9h 15m 100% 67%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 7h 49m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 14:00 → MCO 22:36UA 520 7h 50m 71% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 12:20 → LAS 13:50WN 4278 50m Las Vegas LAS 14:40 → MCO 22:25WN 1225 7h 05m 48% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON