tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2229 Delta Flight history → SMF 06:15 MSP 11:38 6% 3% 0.6% 92%
DL 1701 Delta Flight history → SMF 13:19 MSP 18:48 9% 4% 0.6% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397 5h 34m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 7h 10m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 8h 50m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 1h 39m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → MSP 14:24UA 283 6h 24m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Los Angeles LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 7h 42m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 19m Houston IAH 14:20 → MSP 17:12UA 2150 9h 57m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 26m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 7h 56m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Seattle SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941 7h 44m 95% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766 55m Chicago ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131 6h 53m 66% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON