tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Kailua/Kona, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 479 Southwest Flight history → SMF 09:00 OGG 11:20 10% 2% 0.6% 90%
AS 959 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:30 OGG 10:56 13% 4% 1.1% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:00WN 3781 3h 00m Honolulu HNL 14:00 → OGG 14:50WN 1931 9h 20m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 10:00 → KOA 12:20WN 3783 1h 35m Kailua/Kona KOA 13:55 → OGG 14:40WN 2172 7h 40m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 1h 40m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457 9h 20m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 1h 21m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 7h 45m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 3h 59m Los Angeles LAX 16:55 → OGG 19:34DL 418 11h 17m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 3h 08m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 32m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05WN 3815 2h 15m Phoenix PHX 09:20 → OGG 12:40WN 2138 10h 30m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 07:45 → HNL 10:27AS 819 57m Honolulu HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086 7h 22m 67% 48%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:36 → SAN 10:20AS 3015 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Diego SAN 11:07 → OGG 14:12AS 254 8h 36m 58% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON