Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2370 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12%.

Safest bet that day UA 2370 SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2766 SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2370 United Flight history →	SMF 07:00	ORD 13:10	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3060 American Flight history →	SMF 23:10	ORD 05:36	12%	5%	0.9%	94%
UA 1148 United Flight history →	SMF 23:43	ORD 05:54	12%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2627 American Flight history →	SMF 15:05	ORD 21:35	23%	7%	0.7%	67%
UA 2766 United Flight history →	SMF 14:17	ORD 20:33	26%	7%	0.6%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	99%	87%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 09m Denver	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	6h 15m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	SMF 13:36 → SLC 16:13DL 1423	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	5h 53m	88%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON