Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3815 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3815 SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4285 SMF 19:50 → PHX 21:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3815 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:10	PHX 07:05	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 1867 American Flight history →	SMF 06:00	PHX 07:55	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
WN 106 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:45	PHX 09:35	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 4099 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SMF 09:52	PHX 11:50	12%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 2630 American Flight history →	SMF 12:56	PHX 14:50	22%	6%	0.6%	72%
WN 3816 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 13:55	PHX 15:55	28%	5%	0.6%	69%
WN 3231 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:40	PHX 18:35	33%	8%	0.6%	44%
WN 4285 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 19:50	PHX 21:45	36%	11%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON