Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2189 at 07:45, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2189 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:45	PSP 09:15	8%	3%	0.6%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	99%	91%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	2h 53m Denver	DEN 11:15 → PSP 12:28UA 1294	7h 28m	99%	82%
United Details →	SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 08:10 → PSP 09:56UA 5904 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:45 → PSP 21:34DL 4045 · flown by SkyWest	4h 34m	87%	80%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → PSP 11:50AA 2330	5h 50m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:13 → SEA 08:16AS 1409	2h 04m Seattle	SEA 10:20 → PSP 13:14AS 692	7h 01m	100%	74%
United Details →	SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m San Francisco	SFO 15:56 → PSP 17:46UA 5354 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest	47m San Francisco	SFO 13:40 → PSP 15:26UA 5312 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m	53%	36%
Alaska Details →	SMF 17:08 → SEA 19:07AS 683	48m Seattle	SEA 19:55 → PSP 22:51AS 3214 · flown by SkyWest	5h 43m	37%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON