Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3555 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 3555 SMF 06:25 → SAN 07:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4292 SMF 16:40 → SAN 18:10 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3555 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:25	SAN 07:55	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 1460 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:30	SAN 09:00	17%	3%	0.7%	76%
AS 3015 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 08:36	SAN 10:20	23%	11%	0.9%	70%
AS 1680 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 07:23	SAN 09:05	24%	4%	1.0%	75%
WN 3818 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 09:30	SAN 11:00	26%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 1222 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:45	SAN 12:20	28%	8%	0.6%	62%
AS 3036 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 17:37	SAN 19:21	29%	10%	0.9%	54%
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 13:30	SAN 15:14	30%	10%	0.8%	77%
WN 4290 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 11:40	SAN 13:10	33%	8%	0.6%	50%
WN 2537 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:40	SAN 14:10	35%	9%	0.6%	57%
WN 4774 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 15:15	SAN 16:45	39%	12%	0.6%	53%
WN 3822 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:25	SAN 22:00	41%	15%	0.6%	43%
WN 3212 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 14:20	SAN 15:50	43%	11%	0.6%	57%
WN 1169 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:00	SAN 19:30	45%	15%	0.6%	23%
WN 4293 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:45	SAN 20:20	46%	15%	0.6%	44%
WN 4292 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:40	SAN 18:10	47%	14%	0.6%	58%
AS 2406 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 16:43	SAN 18:20	38%	8%	2.0%	62%
AS 2101 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 10:13	SAN 11:50	43%	11%	2.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON