Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3601 at 07:45, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3601 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:45	SBA 09:00	6%	2%	0.8%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178	1h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → SBA 10:40WN 2336	4h 25m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	92%	84%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	4h 52m	91%	82%
Alaska Details →	SMF 14:55 → PDX 16:27AS 1600	1h 21m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	5h 09m	92%	82%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:40AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	98%	80%
United Details →	SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 22:44 → SBA 23:44UA 4796 · flown by SkyWest	4h 57m	92%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest	57m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m	63%	43%
Southwest Details →	SMF 19:50 → LAS 21:20WN 1324	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → SBA 23:35WN 373	3h 45m	51%	34%
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:13 → SAN 11:50AS 2101 · flown by Horizon	59m San Diego	SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	55%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON