Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1954 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1954 SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5248 SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1954 United Flight history →	SMF 06:00	SFO 06:54	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 5961 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 19:03	SFO 20:10	32%	17%	1.0%	43%
UA 5248 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:46	SFO 12:53	34%	19%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON