Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1526 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1526 SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3828 SMF 18:35 → SLC 21:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1526 Delta Flight history →	SMF 05:30	SLC 08:12	5%	2%	0.7%	97%
WN 3827 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 08:05	SLC 10:40	7%	2%	0.4%	95%
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SMF 09:45	SLC 12:27	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SMF 17:00	SLC 19:41	14%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 1423 Delta Flight history →	SMF 13:36	SLC 16:13	15%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2585 Delta Flight history →	SMF 19:20	SLC 22:02	16%	5%	0.7%	91%
WN 3828 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:35	SLC 21:20	29%	9%	0.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON