tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Kansas City, leaving 11:50, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 920 Southwest Flight history → SMF 10:25 STL 16:05 16% 3% 0.4% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 6h 03m 97% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05WN 3815 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 08:40 → STL 13:40WN 1467 6h 30m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 1h 50m Chicago MDW 13:00 → STL 14:10WN 2902 6h 55m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 9h 32m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:00 → SEA 06:55WN 4920 2h 05m Seattle SEA 09:00 → STL 14:50WN 3632 7h 50m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → STL 16:46DL 3185 8h 31m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 9h 23m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773 50m Denver DEN 10:05 → STL 13:20WN 1753 5h 25m 74% 64%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 16:35 → LAS 18:05WN 2221 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:00 → STL 00:15 +1WN 4539 5h 40m 64% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON