Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 721 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 721 SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 329 SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 721 Delta Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ATL 14:19	12%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 1521 Delta Flight history →	SNA 12:15	ATL 19:49	24%	6%	0.7%	85%
DL 329 Delta Flight history →	SNA 14:00	ATL 21:38	30%	6%	0.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 17m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 45m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	SNA 11:50 → PHX 13:20WN 4944	55m Phoenix	PHX 14:15 → ATL 20:55WN 3232	6h 05m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	6h 34m	81%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON