tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 345 at 11:50, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 345 Southwest Flight history → SNA 11:50 AUS 16:50 25% 6% 0.5% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → AUS 05:46 +1UA 1807 8h 19m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 6h 14m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 3h 28m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 8h 13m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SNA 13:05 → DEN 16:28UA 2132 3h 59m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 8h 39m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 52m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 6h 28m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:00 → DEN 10:25WN 4011 2h 15m Denver DEN 12:40 → AUS 15:50WN 1476 6h 50m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → SNA 08:01 → DFW 13:15AA 2372 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:16 → AUS 16:21AA 3400 · flown by Envoy 6h 20m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:16 → DFW 14:30AA 2644 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → AUS 18:24AA 3402 · flown by Envoy 7h 08m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 14:09 → SEA 16:59DL 952 51m Seattle SEA 17:50 → AUS 23:53DL 848 7h 44m 52% 36%
AmericanDetails → SNA 14:24 → DFW 19:44AA 2684 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 5h 13m 49% 32%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 47m Seattle SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372 7h 46m 38% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON