tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079 9h 57m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:09 +1UA 1340 9h 49m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 21m Chicago ORD 14:30 → BWI 17:36UA 2124 7h 51m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:30 → ORD 17:59AA 2679 3h 26m Chicago ORD 21:25 → BWI 00:33 +1AA 4663 · flown by Republic 10h 03m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 21m Chicago ORD 16:29 → BWI 19:42AA 4717 · flown by Republic 8h 57m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 17:00 → SJC 18:20WN 3864 3h 20m San Jose SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 621 9h 45m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856 2h 39m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 8h 38m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928 8h 38m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 54m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 7h 18m 67% 55%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 18:46 → SEA 21:34AS 454 48m Seattle SEA 22:22 → BWI 06:27 +1AS 781 8h 41m 51% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON