Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 09:49, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2177 American Flight history →	SNA 07:16	CLT 15:15	15%	4%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	3h 59m Phoenix	PHX 12:15 → CLT 19:29AA 2923	9h 43m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	7h 49m	94%	80%
American Details →	SNA 11:30 → ORD 17:59AA 2679	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	9h 29m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	8h 43m	93%	79%
American Details →	SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → CLT 20:59AA 2917	10h 14m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	7h 54m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	8h 34m	97%	78%
American Details →	SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685	2h 38m Phoenix	PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849	8h 03m	93%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856	59m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57DL 2352	7h 17m	70%	54%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	51m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	6h 42m	66%	50%
American Details →	SNA 11:30 → ORD 17:59AA 2679	48m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	7h 29m	65%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON