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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 08:35, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4320 Southwest Flight history → SNA 06:45 DAL 11:55 4% 1% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:05 → PHX 08:30WN 3887 2h 25m Phoenix PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255 6h 15m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:45 → LAS 09:05WN 4296 1h 45m Las Vegas LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218 5h 55m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 08:10 → SJC 09:30WN 3859 2h 10m San Jose SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965 6h 55m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:00 → DEN 10:25WN 4011 1h 15m Denver DEN 11:40 → DAL 14:45WN 2354 5h 45m 94% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:00 → OAK 08:40WN 4935 2h 20m Oakland OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014 7h 25m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 08:35 → PHX 09:50WN 3290 3h 35m Phoenix PHX 13:25 → DAL 17:50WN 3256 7h 15m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 9h 09m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 11:50 → SMF 13:25WN 3001 4h 00m Sacramento SMF 17:25 → DAL 22:50WN 3772 9h 00m 100% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON