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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 3h 51m Chicago ORD 17:00 → DCA 20:10UA 456 10h 25m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 11:58 → IAH 17:20UA 2050 2h 30m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 9h 01m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 +1AA 1542 8h 42m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:30 → ORD 17:59AA 2679 2h 56m Chicago ORD 20:55 → DCA 23:59AA 1187 9h 29m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 13m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 7h 46m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 8h 06m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 2h 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 9h 17m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856 2h 18m Detroit DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073 8h 19m 95% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON