Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4011 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4011 SNA 07:00 → DEN 10:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1538 SNA 18:05 → DEN 21:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4011 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:00	DEN 10:25	6%	2%	0.5%	98%
UA 513 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	DEN 10:16	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 489 United Flight history →	SNA 08:45	DEN 12:09	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2843 United Flight history →	SNA 10:20	DEN 13:43	12%	3%	0.6%	99%worse than usual
F9 4372 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 08:55	DEN 12:25	13%	5%	0.7%	86%
WN 187 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 10:55	DEN 14:10	17%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 2656 United Flight history →	SNA 18:26	DEN 21:47	18%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 2649 United Flight history →	SNA 16:00	DEN 19:20	20%	5%	0.6%	61%
UA 2132 United Flight history →	SNA 13:05	DEN 16:28	20%	6%	0.6%	76%
WN 2649 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 19:50	DEN 23:10	30%	5%	0.6%	62%
WN 3086 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:10	DEN 17:30	34%	7%	0.5%	73%
WN 1538 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:05	DEN 21:25	36%	6%	0.5%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON