Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1382 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1382 SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4652 SNA 15:32 → DFW 20:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1382 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	DFW 12:02	7%	3%	1.2%	89%
AA 2372 American Flight history →	SNA 08:01	DFW 13:15	10%	4%	1.1%	82%
AA 2644 American Flight history →	SNA 09:16	DFW 14:30	15%	5%	1.1%	86%
AA 2680 American Flight history →	SNA 10:25	DFW 15:39	16%	4%	1.1%	88%
AA 2672 American Flight history →	SNA 11:56	DFW 17:12	20%	7%	1.2%	84%
AA 2669 American Flight history →	SNA 12:55	DFW 18:14	22%	8%	1.0%	58%
AA 2668 American Flight history →	SNA 18:39	DFW 23:46	22%	7%	1.5%	77%
AA 2688 American Flight history →	SNA 16:34	DFW 21:49	24%	9%	1.3%	67%
AA 2684 American Flight history →	SNA 14:24	DFW 19:44	26%	9%	1.0%	78%
F9 4652 Frontier	SNA 15:32	DFW 20:52	27%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON