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Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:50, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1856 Delta Flight history → SNA 11:40 DTW 19:06 28% 6% 0.6% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 23:50 → DTW 05:12 +1DL 2841 9h 09m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 9h 00m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 16:16 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 7h 59m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:15UA 661 3h 02m Newark EWR 18:17 → DTW 20:30UA 3586 · flown by Republic 10h 45m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 10h 28m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SNA 11:58 → IAH 17:20UA 2050 2h 30m Houston IAH 19:50 → DTW 23:44UA 2237 8h 46m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 13:44 → SLC 16:40DL 1159 1h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 18:28 → DTW 23:59DL 2255 7h 15m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:36 → SEA 20:29DL 3999 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Seattle SEA 23:15 → DTW 06:28 +1DL 810 9h 52m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 54m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 5255 · flown by SkyWest 6h 44m 67% 49%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:30 → ORD 17:59AA 2679 50m Chicago ORD 18:49 → DTW 21:26AA 4931 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 67% 47%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 18:46 → SEA 21:34AS 454 48m Seattle SEA 22:22 → DTW 05:41 +1AS 343 7h 55m 51% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON