Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2186 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2186 SNA 21:15 → EWR 05:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1559 SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2186 United Flight history →	SNA 21:15	EWR 05:33	8%	3%	1.1%	90%
UA 661 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	EWR 15:15	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
UA 1559 United Flight history →	SNA 12:29	EWR 20:56	27%	10%	0.9%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 46m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	SNA 19:10 → SLC 22:09DL 3856 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	7h 50m	88%	68%
United Details →	SNA 13:05 → DEN 16:28UA 2132	1h 22m Denver	DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613	7h 39m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON