tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 16:12, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 10h 47m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 13m Houston IAH 14:20 → FLL 18:07UA 462 7h 22m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:00 → SEA 09:53DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 11h 52m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 8h 55m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:25 → FLL 18:19AA 1868 8h 33m 99% 68%
UnitedDetails → SNA 13:05 → DEN 16:28UA 2132 1h 17m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:51UA 1374 7h 46m 89% 67%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 9h 24m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 51m Chicago ORD 14:00 → FLL 18:15UA 2635 8h 30m 87% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON